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[综合] 双语阅读/拜登刺激方案有望拉动全球经济(金融时报)

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发表于 2021-3-29 09:12:05 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
拜登刺激方案有望拉动全球经济

Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus set to return global economy to pre-Covid path
来自金融时报 FT
Mike Li, a factory owner in China’s Guangdong province, has been transfixed by events thousands of miles away in Washington, as President Joe Biden hammered out an economy stimulus bill worth almost $2tn.

“We were previously a bit worried about the pandemic abroad and how it would affect our orders,” said Li, whose plant turns out sports shoes that sell to western markets. When the deal was sealed last week, WeChat groups for his industry were “bursting with excitement” and “now there’s a high chance there will be more orders,” he added.

Whether through Chinese-made trainers, French wine or car parts from Mexico, the $1.9tr Biden stimulus package — which will add 9 per cent of national income to US spending power — will not just help the US recover from the coronavirus pandemic, it also promises to propel the global economy towards its pre-pandemic path.

Erik Nielsen, chief economist of UniCredit, employed a Danish proverb to describe the stimulus’ effect on the rest of the world: “When it rains on the priest, it drips on the parish clerk.”

Karen Ward, chief European strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, used a more modern metaphor: “When the US has a party, the rest of the world gets an invitation.”

With $1,400 per person stimulus cheques landing on doormats across the US, the hope in China is that the party comes quickly. While some Americans will spend their windfall on activities such as eating out and entertainment, that these are still curtailed by the pandemic increases the likelihood that the money will flow into imported consumer products.

Allianz, the insurer, has estimated that $360bn of the $1.9tn stimulus money would be spent on imported goods, with China the single largest recipient, receiving about $60bn of that.

“It’s quite straightforward — it’s good for China’s exports,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said of the coronavirus relief package. With Americans spending more time at home due to coronavirus “they buy TVs, laptops, even bicycles and refrigerators,” he explained.

US retail sales figures last week showed that the cheques paid out under the final part of former president Donald Trump’s stimulus raised monthly spending by 7.6 per cent in January.

Translated into exports, the contrast from the early days of the pandemic is stark. China’s exports soared more than 60 per cent in January and February, compared with when the country was plunged into lockdown a year earlier.

UBS this week upgraded its forecast for China’s export growth in 2021 from 10 per cent to 16 per cent, citing the Biden stimulus package and expectations of a “stronger US and global recovery”.

With the US and Chinese economies likely to run hot, the rest of the world will follow, said Christian Keller, head of economics research at Barclays Investment Bank. With the world’s two largest economies accounting for 40 per cent of global gross domestic product, “they should certainly also help pull up Europe’s economy, which has lagged in controlling Covid-19, and many other small open emerging economies”, he said.

A rapid economic recovery is, however, rarely unbridled good news. Li, owner of the Guangdong sports shoe factory, pointed to higher raw materials costs and his struggles to hire staff. “There are too many orders and too few people,” he said.

Phoebe Xie, who runs a plastics machinery company in China’s Wenzhou , said she was worried that high demand for her products would be more than offset by the rising costs. “The most direct impact of the stimulus on our industry is the increasing price in raw materials,” she said.

“The cost of the same machine has increased by $10,000 this year, which is hard for our clients to accept,” she added. Other manufacturers complain of production bottlenecks.

The rise in imports from China will also add to tensions inside the US about the country’s large bilateral trade imbalance. Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, said US exports to China were still well short of the terms of the trade deal the two countries signed just over a year ago.

This could increase the domestic pressure on Biden as the US begins to suck in imports as a result of the stimulus package. The animosity that was evident as Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, met his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Alaska on Friday shows the tensions that already overshadow the complex Sino-US relationship.

But there is a chance, according to Ward, that if US domestic sensitivities over trade can be contained, the stimulus could have an even more important spillover in providing an example to the rest of the world on how best to recover from the pandemic.

The OECD said in its latest economic outlook that the US stimulus would raise the global growth rate by 1 percentage point in 2021. If followed by other countries, it also offered a route towards a much better recovery than that after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the OECD added.

“It is potentially a blueprint for others,” Ward said. “The ambition alone sets an example to governments around the world.”



参考译文:

中国广东省一家工厂的老板Mike Li对数千英里以外的华盛顿发生的事件感到吃惊,在那里,美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)签署了价值近2万亿美元的经济刺激法案。

“之前我们对国外的疫情以及它会如何影响我们的订单顾虑重重,”Mike Li说道。他生产的运动鞋销往西方市场。他补充说,刺激方案确定后,他所在行业的微信群“激动非凡”,“现在会有更多订单了”。



无论是通过中国制造的运动鞋、法国酿造的葡萄酒还是墨西哥生产的汽车部件,1.9万亿美元的拜登刺激方案——它将使美国的消费能力增加相当于9%的国民收入——都将不仅帮助美国从新冠疫情复苏,还有望推动全球经济接近其在疫情爆发前的增长轨道。

意大利裕信银行(UniCredit)首席经济学家埃里克•尼尔森(Erik Nielsen)用一句丹麦谚语来形容美国刺激措施对世界其他地区的影响:“当雨落在牧师身上时,它会溅到书记员身上。”

摩根资产管理(JPMorgan Asset Management)首席欧洲策略师卡伦•沃德(Karen Ward)则使用一个更为现代的隐喻:“当美国开派对时,世界其他地方会接到邀请。”

随着每个美国人1400美元的刺激资金到账,中国出口企业希望这场派对尽快举行。尽管一些美国人会把这笔钱花在外出就餐和娱乐等活动上,但这类活动仍受到疫情制约的现实,加大了资金流入进口消费品的可能性。

保险公司安联(Allianz)估计,在1.9万亿美元的刺激资金中,3600亿美元将被花在进口商品上,中国将是最大的接收者,会获得其中约600亿美元。

“这很直接——它对中国的出口是件好事,”野村证券(Nomura)首席中国经济学家陆挺在谈到拜登的新冠纾困救助法案时表示。他解释说,鉴于疫情使美国人在家里度过更多时间,“他们会购买电视机、笔记本电脑,甚至是自行车和冰箱”。

上周发布的美国零售销售数据显示,根据前总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的最后一项刺激方案向美国人直接发放的刺激资金,使1月的支出总额增加了7.6%。

就中国出口所受到的影响而言,形势与疫情初期形成鲜明对比。相比一年前实施抗疫封锁措施时,中国在1月和2月的出口猛增60%以上。

瑞银(UBS)上周将其对2021年中国出口增长的预测从10%上调至16%,依据是拜登刺激方案以及该行对“更为强劲的美国及全球复苏”的预期。

巴克莱投资银行(Barclays Investment Bank)经济研究负责人克里斯蒂安•凯勒(Christian Keller)表示,鉴于美国和中国经济有望强劲增长,世界其他地区将感受到拉动效应。他表示,考虑到世界上最大的两个经济体加起来占全球国内生产总值(GDP)的40%,“它们肯定也会帮助拉动在控制新冠疫情方面滞后的欧洲经济,以及其他许多小型而开放的新兴经济体”。

然而,快速的经济复苏很少是不打折扣的利好消息。上述广东运动鞋厂的老板Mike Li指出,原材料成本更高了,而且他难以招聘到员工。“订单太多,人太少了,”他说。

在温州经营一家塑料机械公司的Phoebe Xie表示,她担心市场对其产品的高需求将被成本上涨所抵消。“刺激措施对我们这个行业的最直接影响是原材料价格上涨,”她表示。

“同一型号的机器今年成本增加了1万美元,这让我们的客户难以接受,”她补充说。其他制造商抱怨遇到生产瓶颈。

中国对美出口增长,还将在美国国内加剧围绕双边贸易严重失衡的紧张。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员查德•鲍恩(Chad Bown)表示,美国对华出口距离两国在一年多一点之前签署的贸易协议的条款仍很遥远。

随着刺激方案导致美国开始吸纳进口,美国对华出口远低于协议约定可能会加大拜登在国内受到的压力。美国国务卿安东尼•布林肯(Antony Blinken)上周五在阿拉斯加会晤中国最高外交政策官员杨洁篪时,双方对彼此的反感相当明显,表明这些紧张已经给复杂的中美关系蒙上阴影。

但是,据摩根资产管理的沃德分析,如果美国国内对贸易的敏感性可以得到遏制,拜登刺激措施可能会产生一个更重要的溢出效应:在如何从疫情复苏的问题上为世界其他地区树立一个榜样。
经合组织(OECD)在其最新的经济前景报告中表示,美国的刺激措施将使2021年全球增长率提高1个百分点。经合组织补充说,如果其他国家效仿美国的政策,它还将带来一条迈向复苏的道路,这场复苏将比2008-09年全球金融危机过后的复苏好得多。

“对于其他经济体,它可能是一份蓝图,”沃德表示。“仅仅是这种雄心就为世界各国政府树立了榜样。”






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